Below are some of the most interesting articles, quotes and charts I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
Janet Yellen officially declared “mission accomplished” for a soft landing in the economy this week.
'Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared Friday the US economy had achieved a long-sought soft landing, a historically unusual event in which high inflation is tamed without significantly damaging the labor market.' https://t.co/jhYlMgS0aw
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 5, 2024
Having gone all in on the thesis, investors certainly hope she’s right.
ETFs drew a **record** $135 billion of inflows in December, according to @StateStreetGA pic.twitter.com/JdToibxX6l
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) January 3, 2024
But it might be a bit premature to declare the end inflation…
Oh boy.
Global freight rate for containers just surged 61% this week.
Not the time to celebrate the end of inflation.
A second wave is likely underway.
H/t @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/X9K2DZJDWR
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 5, 2024
…and there are still plenty of signs that suggest the landing for the economy could be harder than both Yellen and investors currently anticipate.
The Druckenmiller recession proxy "suggests large parts of the US market are still priced for something nasty to happen." https://t.co/M1NUaT5lUA via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/4CEYu1goM2
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 4, 2024
For a stock market that is priced for perfection, an imperfect economic landing, in any respect, could pose a serious problem.
'The yellow bubbles show the rare points in history when estimated S&P 500 total returns were actually below the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds.' https://t.co/F0cJuUm67K by @hussmanjp pic.twitter.com/3xoLpVvfOy
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 2, 2024
