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One For The Ages, Part Deux

December 9, 2020

Back in June, amidst an explosion in speculative interest in the stock market, I decided, “it might be important to immortalize some of the stories in my recent Twitter feed in a blog post.” I titled that post, One For The Ages; consider this to be part two (of who knows how many) in that series.

As noted bubble-watcher Jeremy Grantham put it recently, “the real craziness” for equities has finally come out.

The unprecedented boom in “blank-check companies,” aka SPACs, is one manifestation of the “craziness” that is reminiscent of previous stock market bubbles.

In addition to the SPAC craze, individual investors have gone gaga for risk in a variety of other ways. Whether you’re, 19 years or and addicted to day trading…

…or 69 years old and addicted to leverage, speculating in the stock market has clearly become America’s official pastime.

And on top of the rise in day trading and surging interest in leveraged ETFs comes an unprecedented spike in the trading of call options.

What is most notable about this mind-boggling stat, however, is the fact that it is being driven by small, retail traders to a greater extent than ever before.

The unprecedented popularity of options trading is one of many possible explanations for a stock like Tesla surpassing a stock like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway in market cap.

But it’s not just Tesla, of course, that has benefitted from all this “craziness.” As Grantham’s firm, GMO, recently pointed out, growth stocks as a group recently surpassed the valuation peak seen just over 20 years ago at the height of the dotcom mania.

Of course, we can’t forget to give credit where it’s due. None of this would have been possible without the explicit endorsement of the Fed.

Easy monetary policy makes for easy money for speculators. And monetary policy has never been easier than it is today hence it’s never been easier to make money in the stock market.

Still, Mr. Buffett may have a few words for all the Teslarians and Davey Day Traders out there who have come to believe that speculation is easy money.

And as Richard Thaler recently discussed, when they do finally realize just how dangerous speculating in the stock market can be it could precipitate an “overreaction” in the stock market to the downside.

Get your popcorn ready.

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