Late last September I made a vow:
That's it. I'm not shaving till we get a 10% correction. http://t.co/jQUQqZNKGf
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) September 25, 2014
I had been making the case here and on Twitter that the bull market was long in the tooth and there were many signs that could be waning.
NEW POST: Profit Margins And Major Stock Market Peaks http://t.co/Ejd9VAWnC0 pic.twitter.com/xCMFWHwzsu
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) September 23, 2014
At the same time, stocks, which normally have a 10% correction once per year, hadn’t had one since 2011.
700 days and counting since the last 10% correction – be careful out there investors http://t.co/ryWYvcNamV pic.twitter.com/Gzdba2clOS
— Andrew Rafal (@AndrewRafal) September 20, 2014
Within days my wife sent me this:
Is the market down 10% yet? @erinfelder just sent me this http://t.co/SXG66Qm2zf #10%beard
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) September 30, 2014
But, in just 3 weeks after my initial pledge the stock market fell about 9%…
All you need to know about the markets in one chart: pic.twitter.com/gw6l3Gqff7
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 15, 2014
…until the Fed came to the rescue:
Bullard says Fed should consider delaying the end of quantitative easing. Could more bond purchases really help the U.S. economy at this pt?
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 16, 2014
Then the Santa Claus rally took over.
Decorating the -10% beard. Merry Christmas to all! http://t.co/6Zr1p1PQiq
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 25, 2014
E*Trade called me out, on my birthday, no less.
"@scheplick It looks like either E*TRADE caught on to @jessefelder's beard or else this is the sign of a market top http://t.co/7SfJ77aRGA"
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 6, 2015
Then the heat on the beard intensified.
No, my beard does not have poop in it http://t.co/Q6he1hvbap
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 7, 2015
As the stock market made new highs, the beard trolling got pretty loud.
This account was created just to troll my beard. LOL: https://t.co/70ag2btSYP
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 7, 2015
And as the beard grew longer and longer, the media began to take note…
For all my new followers – Here's the story behind the beard: http://t.co/V8o2c6WZw9
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 8, 2015
…as did the most creative of technicians.
S&P500 hanging on to the 50day SMA. Levels of note (including the @JesseFelder shave line at 1910) $SPX pic.twitter.com/8NmZl4PDFj
— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) May 12, 2015
Then this past Monday the market finally cracked.
I gotta be honest. I'm gonna miss this thing. https://t.co/dvh6dkEmMY pic.twitter.com/iFi7WoMrJb
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 24, 2015
To be clear…
For the record, I never made a prediction. My entire purpose was to simply point out the overall risk/reward equation was very negative.
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 24, 2015
…I was just trying to make a point…
Equity risk/return graphic from GMO. Great setup for going "all in" right now: http://t.co/R0Dhq6Z2k5 $SPY $IWM pic.twitter.com/iJCn0Ovth8
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 13, 2015
…and have a bit of fun in the process.
Trading range over the life of the beard (11 months) was -9.0% to +6.7%: pic.twitter.com/awmocTJRyg
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 24, 2015
Mission accomplished.