Q: TWTR cfo bought 6700 shrs of stock May 1-5 at $37-38/shr. You probably already saw this. Does this compel you to take a position?
J: I’m considering it. I wrote about the purchase in last weekend’s chart book. Twitter is an amazing service but not much of a company so far. Periscope also looks like a huge game changer in the media space.
Q: I tend to follow your trade ideas pretty closely and have been following along. You mention APPL was a big pick of yours a while back, I too loaded up a couple years ago and still hold those shares – what was your rationale for getting out? Just trying to understand the other side of the equation, when you decide a trade idea has moved far enough it warrants exiting the position.
J: I wrote about my sale here: http://thefelderreport.
com/2014/11/21/it-pays-to- think-different-about-apples- stock-price/ What worries me today about the stock is that the vast majority of its profits come from one product, the iPhone. The company will soon be facing tough comps in that regard, as well. Longer-term I love the company but tend to agree with this recent article from the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/ 2015/04/26/your-money/now-its- apples-world-once-it-was-ibms. html?_r=0
Q: Jesse, can you talk more about how you buy stocks such as ngd, gdxj, etc when they start to go up? I bought all of yours and am happy and have been buying on the breakouts. I know you like dips but let’s hope this is for real so how to put full positions on. Have paid for my subscription. Lol.
J: There’s really three major things I look for. First, I want to buy something that’s cheap. Second, usually for something to get cheap it’s got to become hated. Finally, I want the market to tell me I’m right. From a technical perspective this either means the trend turns up or there are significant signs that momentum is waning on the downside – depending on the type of trade.
Q: I see you added allocation percentages now (looks like it just showed up)…much appreciated, you’re the man! Are these close to your allocations or just your recommendations for the average Joe?
J: These are pretty close to what I’m doing.
Q: I made a mistake today and bought sym: TWM, the ProShares UltraShort 2000 instead of the other Russel 2000 short symbol you have up on your site. Do you think TWM is a good long term hedge?
J: TWM and SRTY are virtually the same thing, Jake. It’s a short-term trade for me, though. Hard to be hedged or short over the long-term.
Q: Are all of your activities represented in the Felder Premium, or are you conducting many other trades as well? I am just curious about the number of positions a successful investor such as yourself maintains at a given time and the frequency of your trades. More specifically, I wanted to get a sense for the scope of your overall activities and if you do much intra-day trading. After reading Druck’s article (and seeing HLF’s performance relative to everything else I’ve tried), I am wondering if a successful investor should just focus on one thing or if the reality is that you try out a lot of things, but in the end it’s one trade that provides the greatest rewards? Thanks for your willingness to share your expertise.
J: I’m putting up pretty much every trade I’m doing on the site. I will say I have still been trading around a short position in FB that’s not up there but that’s about it. I really thing Druck is right. In my experience, you’re way better off ignoring almost every other trade idea outside your top one or two as they are usually the most rewarding. Sort of like the 80/20 rule. 80% of your returns usually come from your 20% best ideas. As Buffett has also said, ‘you really only need to find one good idea per year.’
Q: I know you’re dedicated, BUT If you ever need an excuse, this is as good as any! 😉
Enjoyed the weekly update as always, have a great week Jesse!
J: Thanks, Mike. My wife sent me that article a couple of week ago. I responded with this: https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/596317892188090370