There’s a question that has been floating around the back of my mind for the past couple of years: do we need to make another generational low and retest the 2009 bottom before a new super-cycle bull market can begin?
Personally, I won’t consider this bear market that began in 2000 done until we make new, all-time highs in each of the major indexes. We may be getting pretty close to doing so right now.
The problem I have is that during this bear market of the past 12 years stocks never reached the levels of absolute rock bottom valuations that they did in previous major bear markets.
Either history will rhyme and stocks will go back to retest the 2009 lows sometime over the next couple of years or ‘this time is different.’
And we all know too well the dangers of adopting the latter form of thinking.