Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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This week, Michael Santoli introduced the world of finance to David Snyder, the true identity of the “mystery broker” and a source of his who has regularly and accurately called important market turning points over the past two decades. In an extensive report on his website, Snyder argues, “Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.”
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Like Snyder, Jurrien Timmer, too, points out that, “Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets, this one appears to be in its final innings.”
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Perhaps the most important late-cycle dynamic in the stock market at present is the tech investment cycle. “As the race for AI supremacy both within the USA and globally rages on, tech sector fixed asset investment has surged — crowding out capex by the rest of the market,” writes Callum Thomas.
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However, this sort of spending is not a great sign for forward returns. “Between 1968 and 2007, low-asset-growth firms had an average return of 26% annually, while high-asset-growth firms returned a meagre 4%,” reports The Globe And Mail.
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Finally, as the current stock market cycle ages, Wall Street says goodbye to one who has successfully navigated several in his storied career. “What is the secret of Buffett’s astounding success? I believe it is his character. Wall Street is full of intelligent — and ambitious — men and women, but few have displayed Buffett’s unswerving integrity and dedication to principle,” writes Buffett biographer, Roger Lowenstein.
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