TFR’s Greatest Hits 2018

“May you live in interesting times,” the Chinese curse normally taken to be a blessing, is especially apropos to this past year and not so much because it feels like we have entered uncharted territory in so many ways. In fact, the current market environment may be especially interesting because it so closely parallels several earlier interesting times like 1937…

Why It Might Be A Good Time To Revisit Ray Dalio’s 1937 Analog

…the 2008 financial crisis…

Why We May Be Headed For Another ‘Minsky Moment’

…and the late-1960’s (with echoes of the ‘Nifty Fifty’…

The Fantastic Four That Make FANG Look Tame

…and the demonetization of the dollar).

Why Warren Buffett Would Be Buying Precious Metals Again Today (If He Could)

Still, 2018 saw a totally uniquely disturbing phenomenon of its own.

What’s Behind The Rapid Plunge In The ‘Smart Money Index’?

Most interesting of all may be the fact that these historical reference-based posts resonated with you readers more than anything else I wrote over the course of the year. As Carl Sagan famously put it, “you have to know the past to understand the present.” Certainly, these historical analogs have much to say about the recent market action.

Thanks for your support over the past year. I wish you a peaceful and prosperous 2019!