The big news out of the Sohn Conference yesterday was Stan Druckenmiller’s appearance. Some of the revelations were new and some not so new but all were unequivocal.
Let’s start with the not so new:
- On gold: “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation.” (via Bloomberg) It’s hard to imagine a more bullish catalyst for gold than negative interest rates but Druck’s bullishness toward the precious metal is not news. In fact, he’s been building his gold position for about a year now. See: Druck Backs Up The Truck And Loads Up On Gold
- On corporate debt: “He highlighted that net cash flow has gone negative while net debt is still climbing at an unprecedented rate. He also said that instead of investing in growth, companies are adding the debt for financial engineering like buybacks and M&A.” (via BusinessInsider) Druck warned about the corporate debt bubble, and in greater detail, over a year ago. See: The Greatest Money Manager Alive Attributes The Majority Of His Success To Just This One Thing
- On the Fed: “By most objective measures, we are deep into the longest period ever of excessively easy monetary policies.” (via Bloomberg) Again, this is not news. He warned about the consequences of monetary policy that was way too accommodative, and in greater detail, over a year ago. See: The Greatest Money Manager Alive Attributes The Majority Of His Success To Just This One Thing
Here’s what is new:
- Druck says the Fed has “no endgame” and is now “raising the odds of the tail risk its trying to avoid.” (via Jenn Ablan)
- The stock market has now “exhausted itself” and it’s time to “get out.” (via Josh Brown)
Could he make it any plainer than that?