Back in 2000, I had one of my best years as an investor. You may remember that year marked the peak of the greatest stock market bubble in history. Anyhow, while everyone and their mom was buying internet stocks I was loading up on the exact opposite.
One of the unique things about that time was that the bubble was really concentrated in the technology sector. Outside of that there were some great values to be found in the old “bricks and mortar” types of companies.
I found a couple of those great values in Abercrombie & Fitch and Washington Mutual. I think ANF was trading around 8 times earnings despite the fact that it was still growing pretty fast and had incredible returns on new stores. And this was back when WaMu was still just a boring old thrift trading for 5 times earnings. When investors finally gave up on the high flyers they took refuge in names like these and both ANF and WaMu soared.
In 2007, things were very different. Although valuations didn’t get anywhere near those 2000 levels, there was even more pain felt as a result. There just wasn’t really anywhere to hide during the financial crisis as everything seemed to get hammered to the same degree.
Today’s market feels like a combination of these two and it honestly worries me. We currently have even higher valuations than we did in 2007 – in some cases, even higher than in 2000 (median price-to-sales ratios at all-time record highs). And the overvaluation feels just as pervasive as it did in 2007, maybe even more so (note record “median” valuations, not “mean”).
In other words, the diving board (valuation) is higher now and there’s even less water (pockets of value) in the pool than there was.
This is why I’ve spent so much time researching ways to avoid the next major bear market. Because I think it’s gonna be a doozy. So I think it’s probably wise for most investors in US stocks, at this point, to switch from buy-and-hold to a trend-following approach. Still, this assumes that the selling window, when it comes, will be wide enough and open long enough for everyone to casually exit through which is not always the case.
An alternative or complementary solution I’ve spent some time looking at is a “global value” approach. I got turned on to Meb Faber’s work a few months ago and I think this idea of his has so much merit, especially for investors in US stocks right now. There may not currently be those pockets of value within the US stock market that will help to weather the next storm but there are pockets around the world that may fit the bill.
Do yourself a favor and go read Meb’s book. It just might help you manage the next market meltdown.