The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new, all-time closing high today and folks are giddy. But I can’t stop worrying about Dr. Copper drastically diverging in price (down 8% over the past month and nowhere near new highs).
My eyes are also drawn to the nasty candlestick the Philly Banks index made today. While the broader market rose about a percent the banks rose a mere third that much and closed well off their highs of the day. Bulls should be watching the small caps, too, to see if they confirm the new highs in the broader indexes.
Yesterday I tweeted that the most bullish chart for stocks is that of Euro. It has made a decent inverted head and shoulders pattern and is now testing the breakout level/neckline. Either that or it’s about to invalidate the pattern.
The two charts that worry me most are the daily and weekly S&P 500 charts. On the daily chart you can see that as prices made new highs today we have divergences in money flow and MACD histograms (RSI and MACD lines, not shown, as well). At tomorrow’s open of trading the index will also complete a TD Sequential 13 sell signal.
On the weekly chart we have an ascending wedge (or ending diagonal) pattern along with a 9-13-9 TD Sequential sell signal. Prices today closed just under the DeMark “risk level,” as well.
All in all, I’m just as happy as anyone to celebrate today’s highs for stocks. We’ve all made good money over the past four years. But looking forward, from a purely technical standpoint, I don’t see much to be optimistic about.