Skip to main content
Most of the criticism I receive regarding my blog posts is directed at my market view or, more specifically, my hedging of that view. I understand that some people just don't like the fact that I regularly equivocate when I discuss the markets in these pages.

There are few things I hold an unequivocal opinion about: mainly ethical issues and values. Outside of those, however, my mind explores possibilities. In that, I am more Emerson than Fleckenstein:

There will be an agreement in whatever variety of actions, so they be each honest and natural in their hour.  For of one will, the actions will be harmonious, however unlike they seem.  These varieties are lost sight of at a little distance, at a little height of thought.  One tendency unites them all.  The voyage of the best ship is a zigzag line of a hundred tacks.  See the line from a sufficient distance, and it straightens itself to the average tendency.

It may seem that my opinion of the markets fluctuates with the ticks and, to a certain degree, it certainly does. The possibilities are ever-changing. However, my broader view and ultimate goal is steady even if not entirely certain.

There is no certainty in the markets just as there is no certainty in life. Everything is possible. As the Queen tells Alice in Through the Looking Glass, “why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” A practice I believe investors ought to adopt.

In my opinion, 100% confidence is foolish. And if you can't come to terms with uncertainty you shouldn't be playing the game.

Leave a Reply