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The S&P 500 so far this year has been working on a clear head and shoulders pattern, probably the most recognizable topping pattern in the world of technical analysis. 

Over the past month we've rallied up to 1131 and now back down to 1075 today forming the right shoulder of the pattern. The neckline sits below at about 1042.

The distance from the neckline to the top of the head is roughly 178 points. Subtracting that from the neckline leaves us with a projected decline to about 865. 

865 correlates pretty closely with the 61.8% retracement of the rally that began in the Spring of 2009, a popular fibonacci number used by technicians.

All of this fits pretty well into a clear blueprint for stocks to follow for the remainder of 2010. However, it seems to me that it may just be way too obvious.

I recognize and respect what the chart is saying but I just can't feel comfortable knowing that every trader and their mom is looking at the same thing right now. 

What may be more likely in the short term is another move to this year's highs that catches the bears leaning the wrong way. To quote one of my all-time favorite Dylan tunes: