Last week I wrote that, “The Goldman Case Is More Important Than You Think,” arguing that investors may begin to lose their appetite for risk after experiencing the pain of the bursting of the internet bubble, housing bubble and the meltdown surrounding the financial crisis. The past decade has been one of the worst ever for risk assets. History shows that after periods like this one entire generations swear off the source of risk that caused them so much pain.
I could have just as easily written, “Greece Is More Important Than You Think,” arguing that the problems in Europe are systemic and not solely the problems of that one country. Globalization means we are all interconnected for better or worse. I believe today was a prime example of that.
The major media outlets, however, are looking for excuses for the “glitch” that caused the market to drop 1,000 points today but these are only excuses. One fat finger trade doesn't cause the world's currencies, stock and bond markets to all simultaneously move in terms of many trillions of dollars. No, Goldman Sachs is a real problem for investor confidence, the PIIGS are a true systemic threat to the world economies and financial markets and today is evidence of that.
I have been sounding the call for caution for a few months now and I think it's important to recognize that none of these issues were addressed by the rumor of a fat finger trade that helped the market rally off of its lows today. They remain major risks and so I am still very cautious on risk assets.