The chart above comes from Dave Rosenberg's excellent daily market commentary. It shows the net speculative positions in the dollar index. It's fairly obvious that sentiment towards the greenback has improved dramatically – so much so that it makes me a nervous bull.
In the January issue of “The Felder Report” I wrote about why the dollar should rally and shorting the Euro seeming like a good trade. I've since taken profits in the short Euro trade in large part because it has become so popular.
The next chart shows the dollar index over the same time frame as the chart above. I have circled the points in time that correspond with the rampant bullishness shown in Rosenberg's chart. Being long the dollar index when the crowd was bullish was typically a bad idea.
I'm still bullish on the dollar longer-term. It's part of the larger deleveraging thesis I'm working from. Considering the current sentiment picture, however, I'm stepping aside for now. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out but, without any real edge, I don't need to try to trade it.