the Shiller data still suggest that stocks needed to get much cheaper than they did at last March’s low before they could start a true renewed bull market. His cyclically adjusted p/e fell to 5.8 in 1932, and 6.6 in 1982. Last year, it started to rebound at 13.3. Surely this is not the compelling cheapness that is needed for a new bull market?
I am inclined to think not. And if this is, indeed, the case there are two paths to resolve the persistent overvaluation: first, “we now either take another dive to new lows,” suggests Authers or second, we simply have to, “put up with many more years of lousy returns by stocks.”I have no idea which scenario will play out but I would heartily welcome the former as another rare opportunity.