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Bloomberg reports today that the “smart money” is now betting heavily on an oil peak (not peak oil):

Refinery executives are buying more of their own stock than at any time since 2000, prompting investors to bet that a retreat in oil will boost profits and reverse the biggest share decline in a decade.

Executives at 10 refining companies snapped up $2 million of their shares last month, twice what they sold, according to data from the Washington Service, which analyzes insider patterns for 500 institutional clients. That helped raise the average level of purchases to the highest in eight years…

Caxton Associates LLC, Citadel Investment Group LLC and Renaissance Technologies Corp., which oversee $64 billion in hedge-fund assets, also boosted bets that the shares will rebound, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Insider activity has been one of the most successful indicators I’ve tracked over the past decade. And money just don’t get much smarter than Bruce Kovner and Ken Griffin.

Refiner Insiders Buy Most Stock Since 2000 on Oil Bet
Michael Tsang and Eric Martin
June 23, 2008