This is a daily chart of the rate on the 10-Year Treasury Note, maybe the most important rate in the world. It is the basis for most mortgage rates and also one of the best indicators of future inflation/economic expectations.

The yield on the bond has dropped 200 basis points (2% points) since last summer indicating that worries about inflation have dissipated as concerns about future economic activity have taken over.

But this month, it has broken its downtrend and the 10-period exponential moving avg has crossed the 40 – signs of a trend change.