The following letter was submitted to the editor of the Bend Bulletin:

“All the fundamentals are in place…”

The above quote can be found in the lead story from today’s business section of the Bulletin (“Redmond on firm ground economically”). Bud Prince, manager of Redmond Economic Development, Inc., is its source.

Considering the current real estate crash (with sales down 50% and prices down 20% it can be termed nothing else) any rational human would finish the quote with, “…to lead one to expect severe economic weakness over the coming months.”

Instead, Mr. Prince continues, “…from an industrial perspective, the future can almost be an extrapolation of the recent past [which has brought about $100 million in capital investment over the past 5 years].”

Why Redmond would hire an economist from Mars is beyond me.

Reading Mr. Prince’s comments, I am immediately reminded of the Federal Reserve’s recent analysis of financial bubbles. The Fed concludes that bubbles are created, “as investors extrapolate recent price action [or economic action] far into the future.”

If this is not PRECISELY what Mr. Prince is doing then I must have stepped through the looking glass. Once again, it’s life imitating art (if anything the Fed does can be considered art – a stretch, I know).

Over the next 5 years, I am nearly certain that Mr. Prince will be proven severely misguided. And for all of you looking to Mr. Prince and his ilk for such predictions, remember:

“The Prince of darkness is a gentleman.” -William Shakespeare
LIV