A couple of weeks ago I wrote a post asking, “is this the real estate ‘echo bubble’?” Today, it looks like this potential ‘echo bubble’ may be in the slow-motion process of popping.
High-end real estate in the Bay Area is starting to show real signs of weakness.
Bay Area housing market is in a state of full-blown seizure https://t.co/30Di7JJaKV pic.twitter.com/cAVUgfBNqT
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 17, 2016
This is mainly due to the fact that the startup boom, which created a massive wealth effect in the area, looks to be in the process of peaking and rolling over. Many large investors have been writing down the value of their startup investments for months now and new investment in the space is drying up. It only makes sense, then, that real estate prices, which benefitted from the boom, would now begin to suffer accordingly.
Long-term trends in VC deals, ht @JeffCNYC pic.twitter.com/y58HFhGk46
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 17, 2016
At the same time we are now seeing weakness in another ultra-high-end market. The most expensive segment of homes in the Hamptons is seeing pressure on prices as sales begin to slow and inventories rise.
Hamptons luxury home sales soften as Wall Street weakness takes a toll https://t.co/9Pg7XtFRiN pic.twitter.com/S10tiNPukA
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 17, 2016
Similar to the slowdown in Silicon Valley, the weakness in the Hamptons can largely be attributed to the slowdown on Wall Street. Trading revenue in the first quarter has been disappointing, negative interest rates around the world pose a unique challenge to banks, and hedge funds are finding it very difficult to profit in the current environment. All of this adds up to pressure on prices of the most valuable homes in the Hamptons.
Banks face "unprecedented headwinds," fail to meet cost of capital https://t.co/dJmfrvlRxh
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 16, 2016
I should also note that all of this fits with what we have recently heard from some other companies serving the ultra-wealthy like Sotheby’s. The auction house has seen a dramatic slow down in business recently with at least one large buyer becoming a forced seller.
And If the Fed’s efforts in recent years were primarily focused on creating a, “wealth effect,” to stimulate the economy, they should be increasingly concerned now to see these growing signs of a reverse, “wealth effect.” Because if the economy does operate from the top down, as this theory proposes, these could be very important leading indicators.