As I write this, the Nasdaq 100 Index is up 30% over the past year while continued jobless claims have soared to record highs as the result of a pandemic. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen (or anyone else has ever seen, for that matter). Typically, when recession hits and unemployment rises dramatically it’s not good for the stock market as both revenues and earnings take a hit. In the past, the trends in continued jobless claims and stocks had a negative correlation, meaning that when the former rose the latter fell. Over the past few months, however, we have seen both rise strongly in tandem. And there may be no better representation of the massive gulf between the stock market and the economy right now.
